Why be concerned about food price spikes? Because food price spikes are concrete data that reflect climatic disruptions to growing conditions and which also predict disruptions in human society (including armed conflict and government overthrow). As a single data point, food price spikes (or simply food price trends) can be used to look forward and backward simultaneously, so they are quite useful. Of course, all this dry analytical language obscures the fact that food price spikes also reflect suffering and hunger for millions and millions of people around the world, and that should be the true concern for any Christian.
Of course, for this blog, which is focused on looking at the accumulated effects of sin on the physical world and on the natural systems that underpin the functioning of the world, food price spikes are used to indicate further accelerations in the decline of the earth and its systems, which in turn is used to highlight scripture that describes the state of the world just before Christ returns (see this previous post for a fuller explanation). In other words, as a reflection of societal conflict and widespread hunger, food price spikes are an indicator of the fulfillment of prophecy for this blog.
So, with all that lead-in, lets go to the big questions: Are we seeing significant food price increases so far in 2014? The answer is yes, we are. And the trend, if it continues, will deliver a very significant food price spike which will lead to profound suffering and conflict this year. Let us pray that the trends do not continue. Today the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations released its monthly food price report. You can see the accompanying graph below. The graph is perhaps a little hard to read: It contains data for five years and each year is reflected by a different color line moving through the months. Note that 2014, which only has three months of data so far, can be seen on the left side of the graph in red. Also note that the three months are continuously upward. Food prices have increased substantially so far this year. For the five years represented, only the latter half of 2010 has an increase that looks anything like what we are seeing so far this year. Note that the food price spike in 2010 led hundreds of millions into increased poverty and hunger and spurred rebellions and conflicts that overthrew governments (particularly in the Middle East). If this current food price spike continues, expect to see that and more in Central and Northern Africa and in the Middle East and India (and expect it to be a factor in societal tensions in China).
FAO Food Price Chart
What is the chance we will see a continued food price increase in 2014? Well, pretty good, actually. We have continuing drought building in the Ukraine and other grain producing regions in eastern Europe. We have continuing drought in parts of China. We have continuing drought in Brazil and, of course, in California and the western US. We have building drought in Malaysia and Indonesia, which may be linked to the waxing El Nino conditions we see in the Pacific. These same El Nino conditions may threaten the crucial monsoon rains in India and will almost certainly induce hotter and drier conditions in Australia (which has already suffered from record hot and dry conditions for the past three years). All of these situations are affecting the price of food now. If conditions continue to build, they will further effect food prices. At the same time, there is more than drought going on: In the UK and parts of Western Europe, crop damage has been due to too much water. This is certainly true in South Africa and neighboring countries. Thus we can say that extreme weather – too much or too little rain – is affecting critical agricultural production on a global basis. And then of course there are the fundamentals of supply and demand. We now have some 7.2 billion people on the face of the earth and we have stagnant or decreasing productivity of agricultural lands. This situation means that we have almost no food cushion right now on a global basis. Even without supply disruptions, we need everything we grow and if there are disruptions (bad weather, droughts, plant disease, etc.) we don’t have anything to fall back on.
Let me end by returning to a key point I made earlier: just the food price increases we have seen so far are enough to increase suffering and hunger among millions of the worlds poorest. As Christians, we should be concerned for these people and should be holding them up in prayer and asking what the Lord would have us do for them. Should we help them with food? Should we find a way to witness to them or their fellow people? It is safe to say that the Lord has something to tell us in regard to whether or not we should help these people. It is up to us to seek His will in prayer. For an insight into just how profound the suffering is that is going on all over the world in response to the massive food price spikes of the last 6 years, take a look at this post from a few months ago.
Scott Christiansen
